International Paper Co. (IP-$7.72) pays a dividend of 25 cents, which hasn’t changed in 13 years. It is still the largest paper and forest-products company in the world, and the weak world economy has beaten the stock to a pulp from its $33 high price this year. Well, there are a number of numbers that make this stock interesting. This company owns 300,000 acres of forestland in the U.S. and 250,000 acres of forestland in Brazil, plus “cutting rights” in Russia that can produce more timber than its Brazil properties. Meanwhile, even in this soft economy, Wall Street’s consensus indicates that IP will earn between $2.15 and $2.40 this year on revenues of $25 billion. That’s a profit-to-earnings ratio of less than 5; a book value of nearly $21 (which makes IP buyout bait) and its $1 dividend gives a new shareholder close to a 12.5 percent yield. I don’t like IP, and during the past 20 or more years, I could never warm to the stock. But whenever a big, healthy company trades so far below its book value, I begin to get interested. And IP is a big, healthy company. If there is a buyout (probably a Scandinavian paper company) I would guess that a price of two times book value would be fair. So I don’t have the slightest objection if you decided to purchase 500 shares of IP. I don’t think there’s any danger to the dividend, and I think the current price is scraping the bottom. I suspect revenues, while they may not rise over the next couple of years, will remain at the $24 billion or more level. IP seems to be a classy speculation.
| tags international paper | 24 Feb 2009 | ∞ link comments (view)
